Overpopulation is an ongoing threat to all ecosystems, just as an ash cloud is a real and present threat to the earth's temperature. But don't think the solution is all down to getting down to the right numbers .
That sort of problem solving approach is not worthy of your mind; or of the science of resilience in practice .
Nature has many ways of resisting overpopulation, but they are often slow and even very harsh. We therefore can and should interfere and do better than Nature itself will do on it's own.
We can and should do better because we can intervene with wisdom and care - it used to be called husbandry .
Many smart arses of history want to take the easy road and get rid of people, but not here. And we can't , like God can't , stop people having fun and choosing to have families - at least not here
So what are our options ?
We should be actively thinking about how to build resilience into our world because our understanding of it means we can prevent , if we want to, overpopulation - but only where it's really a threat ( see different colors) .
As we are all those called to husbandry ( both mind and practice) of the ecosystems of which we are part, we have many practical choices to deal with this risk. Overpopulation is an ongoing threat to all ecosystems just as an ash cloud is a real and present threat to the earth's temperature , but it's one thing we can plan to avoid.
This forum is not big enough to explore all the options, but I insist you resist the blanket use of one ;The pill. To say that imposed birth control using the pill is the only and most effective way is to worship technology and not science ; crude machinery and not ecology in practice;
It could take us back to the days of the quick fix and dilettantism of the eugenic societies . ( Such meetings may not be formally labelled now but they do meet and make decisions that are not canvassing all the scientific options and in some cases take away the personal freedoms the West has taken for granted for eons )
The pill and sterilization should be considered as good gifts to us in the dilemma, but the integration and understanding of all options must come first ; respect for freedom of choice must come first , This last one requirement is one of the hardest to retain yet we already have the obscenity of interjectors not educating individuals to make their own choices here-- laws of "disease" control have been imposed in Victoria in 2021.
If you think human beings have no other choices, please look at the incomplete list of options at the end of this note . See why blanket lower number solutions (BLNS) will not work ( and therefore be WRONG ) add your own.
Our generation of leaders , I would suggest, are often prone to acting immorally by overstating the risk and danger and threat ,.That has meant in recent years that the only legimized actions are not those that make sense in each ecosystem ( the right and respectful way ) but those that simply focus on targets and numbers . If the new control marxists got their way again , it would still fail ; short term gain ,long term pain.Their picture is not big enough ; make sure yours is !
BLNS union movement is a profoundly simple and stupid way to try to solve problems Precision in decision is the ONLY way to make our work, work with nature; Competent engagement not subservience
Resilience resists such a shallow minded practice, but does not ignore numbers . Like the proper use of the law, its there to provide a mirror ,curb and ruler to real dangers around the corner ; the absolute need to slow down or stop doing something . There is a point where elasticity gives way, but before that don't "kick against the pricks" or complain of the pain if you ignore the signals .
Individual Ecosystem Options
I have used this world map of actual fertility rates ( 2.1 is the replacement rate) to illustrate some of the individual challenges.. But of course they apply right down to households and their survival day to day .Don't be a dumb shit and solve the world's problems by insisting on right number technology .
1. Population will drop naturally if alternatives to subsistence agriculture ( esp in savannah ) continue to be supported. This is most important . India ,for example, could go blue sooner than we think .
2. Nations without a pop problem can help those with a problem of adjustment ( Over 10 % of the workers in Australia are on overseas visas. Europe also benefits greatly from migration
3. The growing % of older people means that a certain greater growth amongst younger people is necessary for communities to thrive . ( problem right across the world????)
4 , There remains amongst some city people an unjustified fear that all industrial agriculture is damaging the earth.( like a religion and called so -misanthropy ) This unfair fear can only be effectively dealt with by having the oversight that has been denied in recent times. That is
applied eco scientists on the ground are still needed to help ensure unacceptable risks to future generations are NOT taken ( called planning and there are none of us left ) - In a huge step backwards, successive Australian governments have used the resources once dedicated to governance to support that population to provide largely uncontrolled expenditure on token targets in the cities.
5 , There are growing numbers of people who reject industrial agriculture and modern interference. In their ignorance and panic ,they are calling for a return to a much riskier and harsher form of slavery called subsistence farming . It must be the job of all earth citizens to reject this and find a way to readopt the former ( 4),,,, It works.
6 , Western countries , if they continue to fail to link people into productive work, will fail to build the trade and creatives industries that can help release people from "5 "to a more stable economic system .
7 Western economies, if they continue to carelessly cultivate dependency and resist accountability may well continue to encourage women to have more children than their ecosystem can support . Such threats are likely to make a really big impact on the welfare of our children and their work and study opportunities in the future.
8 Civilizations can fail first from things other that the citizens sense of the inadequate space they occupy.
Tyrants, using the fears of the people , have justified great evil on the nonsense that they need more resources than they have .Think about Japan both now, historically and during their hysterical period.
You will do good if you are a thorough realist about the myths cultivated in people's minds .
9 Is it not hypocrisy for the rich ( green and blue ) to tell the poor to do without- to have less children when the prospect of new forms of employment other than subsistence agriculture can and should be supported in both eco surplus ( another topic f
or another day) and numbers of young people .
6 comments:
The ideal global population that can be sustained on a renewable ongoing basis depends directly on what renewable resources are available. Currently we are as a human race in my opinion in overshoot only prospering through the consumption of non renewable resources which will in time run out. I feel like the human race is listening to the music, eating fine food and dancing while we rearrange the Deck Chairs on the sinking Titanic. There is an Elephant in the China Shop but no one sees it. The King has no clothes. What the world is facing is the imminent collision between demand driven by population and the consumption and run out of non-renewable resources. Climate change, rising sea levels, the destruction of rain forests and even the wars and struggles between nations are all side shows in comparison. Unfortunately the world is full of madmen and economists. In my own lifetime the global human population has tripled to the current 7.9 billion and every year for the last 30 years 80 million additional persons have been added each and every year with little sign of slowing. We have never had so many humans living on our precious planet. As birth rates in developed countries reduce this is compensated by having an ever larger population base. End result 80 million more births than deaths every year ongoing. Population drives demand upon both renewable and non renewable resources with massive impact upon deforestration, pollution and decimation and extinction of other species. It is far later than most think as we are already in overshoot with an ecological footprint of 1.7. That means it takes 1.7 earths to support our current global population with renewable resources. We are only prospering for a limited time by consumption of non renewable resources. The global resource to annual consumption ratios or estimated years to run out for these finite non-renewable resources paint an alarming picture. For example the fuels - Oil 47 years, Gas 52 years, Coal 133 years. The minerals - 16 elements we depend on will run out in less than a 100 years - Chromium 2035, Antimony 2036, Lead 2038, Zinc, 2040, Silver 2041, Cadmium 2042, Selenium 2056, Nickel 2061, Iron 2064, Copper 2069, Tin 2071, Gold 2074, Molybdenum 2077, Cobalt 2085, Manganese 2095, Uranium 2100. We currently consume an astounding 1.7 billion tonnes of iron/steel every year. And yet I believe there is hope if we reduce the Global human population to a manageable and static 500 million ( about 1/16 of current levels) supported by renewable technologies and renewable resources at current "developed" standards. Eventually and inevitably that will come but not without resistance pain and suffering on a scale never seen before. Our Grand and Great Grand Children will face a different world, a world of scarcity. Difficult times ahead for future generations. This all raises an ethical and possibly religious and spiritual question "Should we care about future generations?" I think future generations will not look kindly upon their ancestors. George Fricker - gwfricker@hotmail.com
Dear George , The way humans carry on is indeed deeply grievous - the rich who could do something easily to help poor move away from subsistence ( education ,targeted investment) but THEY WASTE those very resources.
I don't disagree that the way humans carry on , particularly the rich ( who should be the focus of better resource management) leads to people falling over cliffs when they don't need to .
All i can do is remind people of the blinkers they wear and copt young people to study the earth and contribute to their ecosystems ( which is realistic possible and somewhat satisfying !!)
I am not fearful though of running out of resources per say promoting for future generations the insights into better management that will come FROM THEIR CONTINUED DEEPER STUDY of ecosystems .
I believe we must support birth control Pill etc but only in certain ways. Despite our deeply shared desire to see no unwanted children, I personally cannot support abortion ;
Even though there are huge numbers of families who would welcome an adoption on day one ,the rich choose a lesser way.
There are still many deep unanswered questions in taking the path the West has for thousands of years , I see only slackness in giving up now and now we have jobs and surpluses from industrialisation for people to care.
Please young people
-- take seriously the idea that by working together with these profound threats of finding good productive and rewarding work without disaster in Nature you too can find a measure of hope peace and rest in this world ----it will never be perfect( even in your own house) but don't allow half baked unthinking OLD cynics stop you . Go kiddos http://designwithnature.blogspot.com
I too ask God daily why he made/makes it so very very hard for some children and their parents and for so long .
This is surely only the start and some tough questions for the future( to prevent the quick fixers or example ) Please post questions and comments Bless you for reading.
All animals are under threat for their livelihood but its madness for humans ( who have a brain bigger than fear ) to not look at their own eco situation before they assume we don't need more labor to look after our eco. .
With well over 10% of the West workforce on visas, we have to face the fact that we baby boomers should offer comfort to our children to have children.
Pleased to see ( at long last ) some common sense by the Victorian government ( feb 2023) to allow a duck shooting season again. Finally we have our leaders recognising that we all live in the Savannah where things die naturally each year and we are best , just as with kangaroos to cull them - with care .
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